Ensemble Verification

Standard Verification for ENSEMBLE PREDICTION MODEL SYSTEMS

Quality Control of forecast products through the unified system named VERSUS (VERification System Unified Survey) based on RDBMS system and a web-based GUI are carried out routinely at COMET. See “Deterministic Product Verifica

A Standard EPS Verification calculates probability statistical scores and diagrams for Ensemble Prediction model Systems. The calculated EPS scores are BRIER, BRIER Skill, Brier Decomposition (Reliability, Resolution, Uncertainty), RPS (Rank Probability Score), RPSS (Rank Probability Skill Score), RPS climatology, CPRS (Cumulative Probability Skill Score), CPRSS (Cumulative Probability Skill Score), SPREAD, ERROR, ROC Area and Outliers.(See Apprendix for short descriptions). Confidence intervals of scores are also calculated. The EPS diagrams are ROC, Reliability, Cost Loss and Rank. There is no possibility for selection of EPS scores and diagrams, they are all calculated for each verification. RPS and RPSS scores are consistent only with MECE (Multi Category Probability Forecasts) thresholds. Similarly to the Standard Verification, the system displays the related report with all the verification information.